Replication data for: When do campaign effects persist for years? Evidence from a natural experiment



Item Type: Dataset
Title: Replication data for: When do campaign effects persist for years? Evidence from a natural experiment
Date: 2019
Creator: Jäger, Kai
Divisions: Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > MZES
DDC
Classification:		 320 Political science
Abstract: A unique re-vote allows for a natural experiment to evaluate whether campaign effects can last for nearly a decade: A right-wing conservative party missed the 5-percent threshold in a German state by a mere vote in 2007, but the Constitutional Court ordered a re-vote in a single precinct over potential election fraud. After a one-sided campaign focusing on law and order, the party’s vote share increased more than sixfold. By comparing the precinct with its direct surroundings, the study shows that the re-vote campaign had long-lasting effects on vote choice and broader security-sensitive behavior. Residents in the re-vote precinct installed more warning signs on their property to deter burglars. They were not more supportive of right-wing attitudes, but more likely to believe that election fraud reoccurred. Based on habitual-voting and social-norm theories, the study suggests that persuasion could be durable if candidates provide an unchallenged interpretation of political events. (2019-06-15) (English)
URL: https://madata.bib.uni-mannheim.de/824/
Access (Controlled): Only Metadata
License (Controlled): Creative Commons: CC0 | Universal 1.0 (recommended)
Related Publication(s) in MADOC: Jäger, Kai (2020), When do campaign effects persist for years? Evidence from a natural experiment

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Notes: This dataset underwent an independent verification process that replicated the tables and figures in the primary article. For the supplementary materials, verification was performed solely for the successful execution of code. The verification process was carried out by the Odum Institute for Research in Social Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Date Deposited: 27 Apr 2026 15:25
Last Modified: 27 Apr 2026 15:25

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