Replication data for: Eliciting beliefs as distributions in online surveys

Item Type:	Dataset
Title:	Replication data for: Eliciting beliefs as distributions in online surveys
Date:	2020
Creator:	Leemann, Lucas ; Traunmueller, Richard ORCID: 0000-0001-9487-091X ; Stoetzer, Lukas ORCID: 0000-0003-2486-7496
Divisions:	Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Mannheim Centre for European Social Research - Research Department B School of Social Sciences > Political Science, Empirical Democracy Research (Traunmüller 2017-)

DDC Classification:	320 Political science
Abstract:	Replication package for a forthcoming research note at Political Analysis. Abstract: Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full prob- ability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of five different elicitation methods designed to capture citizens’ uncertain expectations. Our results suggest that an elicitation method originally proposed by Manski (2009) performs well. It measures average citizens’ subjective belief distributions reliably and is easily implemented in the context of regular (online) surveys. We expect that a wider use of this method will lead to considerable improvements in the study of citizens’ expectations and beliefs. (2020-08-21) (English)
External Identifier for Data:	https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/GEC2LS

URL:	https://madata.bib.uni-mannheim.de/845/
Access (Controlled):	Only Metadata
License (Controlled):	Creative Commons: CC0 | Universal 1.0 (recommended)
Related Publication(s) in MADOC:	Leemann, Lucas und Stoetzer, Lukas F. und Traunmüller, Richard (2021), Eliciting beliefs as distributions in online surveys

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Date Deposited:	28 Apr 2026 14:56
Last Modified:	28 Apr 2026 14:56