Replication data for: Forecasting elections in multi-party systems: A Bayesian approach combining polls and fundamentals
| Item Type: | Dataset |
|---|---|
| Title: | Replication data for: Forecasting elections in multi-party systems: A Bayesian approach combining polls and fundamentals |
| Date: | 2018 |
| Creator: |
Neunhoeffer, Marcel  ORCID: 0000-0002-9137-5785 ; Stoetzer, Lukas ORCID: 0000-0003-2486-7496 ; Gschwend, Thomas ORCID: 0000-0002-8656-9622 ; Munzert, Simon ; Sternberg, Sebastian ORCID: 0000-0003-4225-6402
|
| Divisions: | Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences- CDSS (Social Sciences) Außerfakultäre Einrichtungen > MZES School of Social Sciences > Politische Wissenschaft, Quantitative Sozialwissenschaftliche Methoden (Gschwend 2007-) |
| DDC Classification: |
320 Political science |
|---|---|
| Abstract: | We offer a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multi-party elections. It combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from fundamentals-based forecasting models. The model takes care of the multi-party nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of other quantities of interest, such as the probability of a plurality of votes for a party or the majority for certain coalitions in parliament. We present results from two ex ante forecasts of elections that took place in 2017 and are able to show that the model outperforms fundamentals-based forecasting models in terms of accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty. Provided that historical and current polling data are available, the model can be applied to any multi-party setting. (English) |
| External Identifier for Data: | https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MLYNX0 |
| URL: | https://madata.bib.uni-mannheim.de/683/ |
|---|---|
| Access (Controlled): | Only Metadata |
| License (Controlled): | Creative Commons: CC0 | Universal 1.0 (recommended) |
| Related Publication(s) in MADOC: | Stötzer, Lukas F. und Neunhoeffer, Marcel und Gschwend, Thomas und Munzert, Simon und Sternberg, Sebastian (2019), Forecasting elections in multi-party systems: A Bayesian approach combining polls and fundamentals |
Full text not available from this repository.
| Date Deposited: | 08 Apr 2026 16:38 |
|---|---|
| Last Modified: | 08 Apr 2026 16:38 |
You have found an error? Please let us know about your desired correction here: E-Mail
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |
